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Asia Weekly – The double-edged sword of Biden’s Ukraine war games 亞洲週刊 – 美國在烏克蘭設的局是一把雙刃劍，最終是害人終害己 3-28-22

The United States wants to turn Ukraine into a power grinder, exhaust Russia’s national strength, and reap diplomatic interest. However, since indiscriminate sanctions violated the principles of property rights and the rule of law, the momentum of global de-dollarization has been triggered. The Saudis fired the first shot; the White House’s double-edged sword hurt others as well as itself.

There are more and more signs that the White House is setting up a plan to turn Ukraine into Russia’s Vietnam. President Biden believes that facing Putin’s internal backlash and internal and external difficulties, Russia is bound to repeat the curse of history, making foreign wars the fuse of internal unrest. White House advisers believe that from the Crimean War to World War I to Afghanistan, the internal regime in Moscow was unstable due to external wars, and eventually ushered in a “regime change”.

Is this the wishful thinking of the White House? What is certain is that the longer the bloody killing of the Ukrainian war lasts, the better it will be for the United States, because the European Union, which had been estranged from the United States in the past, has all turned to the United States under the fire of Russia. NATO was originally regarded by French President Emmanuel Macron. Already “brain dead”, but now back to life with extraordinary vitality. Germany announced an increase of 100 billion US dollars in military spending, Finland, Sweden and other countries also announced to give up their neutrality and demanded to join NATO. Even Switzerland, which has always been neutral, also joined the sanctions against the rich Russians and frozen their assets. This allows the United States to easily kidnap Europe and replace Germany as the ultimate hegemon of Europe.

U.S. military-industrial companies also immediately became popular, and all kinds of stocks were on the rise. F35 fighter jets are hot, and European countries are snapping up to ensure strong air supremacy in future conflicts. Anti-tank shoulder-launched missiles, this time in the Ukrainian battlefield, smashed more than 1,000 Russian tanks. Although the Ukrainian army did not have a large-scale battle with the Russian army, all kinds of weapons came in handy, making the battlefield a testing ground for new weapons. This is also the highlight moment for the American arms dealer, who not only made huge business, but also won the positive image of “defender of the free world”, breaking the infamy of being ridiculed as “death merchant” in the past.

U.S. President Eisenhower pointed out in the 1950s that U.S. politics was originally controlled by military-industrial enterprises, because it has too much money and too many interest networks, which are intertwined and extend the tentacles of interests into capillaries of power. It has been transported to key parts, changed the constitution of the country, and also influenced foreign policy. Therefore, in his farewell speech leaving the White House, Eisenhower pointed out earnestly that American politics must be wary of the “military-industrial complex.” But as soon as the gunfire of the Ukrainian war rang, the military-industrial complex became the protector of American politics and the protector of Biden’s campaign.

At the same time, the United States also won the oil hegemony in the Ukrainian war and took over the energy business in Europe. For a long time, Russia has been the main supplier of the European energy market, but now due to the US sanctions, European business has immediately shifted from Russia to the United States. The Texas shale oil business can just make up for the huge German demand after the cut off of Nord Stream II. . Many U.S. political donors are shale oil business owners. In recent years, they have been restricted by environmental protection forces and have difficulty developing. Oil prices have been hovering at low levels for a long time, which also makes shale oil unable to improve. Now that there is a sudden shortage of oil in Europe, oil prices in the United States are also soaring, and shale oil has immediately risen, becoming the darling of Wall Street.

Ukraine has become a “meat grinder”, draining Russia’s national strength. It not only strangled the six generals of the Russian army, but also strangled the foundation of Russia’s rule. Biden made Ukraine a “borrowed battlefield” for the United States, fighting an “outsourced war” of the United States, borrowing the deaths of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians, winning the tears of global sympathy, and reaping the diplomatic interest of the United States.

But this is a double-edged sword. At first glance, the layout of the United States is surprising, but due to the excessive force, there is an unexpected rebound. The United States sanctioned the rich overseas Russians (many of them are Putin’s enemies) and confiscated their property, which violated the basic principles of capitalism and the rule of law society, and destroyed the sanctity of property rights. quit. But the deeper impact is the international credit of the US dollar. Biden self-destructed the Great Wall, and the national debt, securities and assets of various countries in the United States became precarious overnight. The protection of property rights, which was once regarded as the cornerstone of a society governed by the rule of law, was utterly destroyed under the sudden expansion of administrative power.

This also made the first crack in the global credit wall of the dollar. Saudi Arabia fired the first shot. Not only did it reject the call from Biden, but it also immediately reached an agreement with Beijing that oil exports to China would be settled in RMB in the future, and the first step in “de-dollarization” was implemented.

This has shaken the U.S. long-held petrodollar hegemony. Since the United States has long abandoned the gold standard, the value of the dollar is anchored by petrodollars. Now the United States has taken the initiative to tear open a hole, and the embankment of a thousand miles has collapsed in the ant’s nest. In recent years, the United States has been criticized for printing money aggressively in the name of “quantitative easing”. Now the petrodollar is facing the challenge of unstable foundation, which is harming the core interests of the United States.

India, South Africa, and Central Asian countries have also turned to the process of “de-dollarization”. In the face of the “swift” sanctions imposed by the United States, they are increasingly moving closer to China’s “cips” system, trading in their own currencies, connecting with the RMB, and even Enter the “electronic RMB” system to avoid being made money by the United States, and to avoid being “stuck in the neck” by the United States.

This is equivalent to touching the “lifeblood” of the United States and hitting the key to American hegemony. The U.S. dollar, U.S. debt, and the U.S. military are the “three treasures” of U.S. hegemony, but this time the dollar and the “two treasures” of U.S. debt were slashed by Biden, and the U.S. military faced the fate of being alone.

This is a double-edged sword wielded by the United States in the Ukrainian war. It slashed at Russia, and it also tried to slash at China, but it did harm to itself before harming others. This is the essence of a double-edged sword and the latest lesson in the martial arts of international politics. ▇

美國要將烏克蘭變成權力絞肉機，將俄羅斯國力消耗殆盡，收割外交利息。但是由於無差別制裁違反產權與法治原則，觸動了全球去美元化的勢頭。沙特已經開了第一槍; 白宮的雙刃劍害人也害己。🥵
越來越多跡象顯示，白宮正在設局讓烏克蘭成為俄羅斯的越南，泥足深陷，折損軍力也消耗國力。這是否白宮的一廂情願？可以確定的是，當前鳥戰的血腥殺戮，時間拖得越長，對美國越有利。因為過去與美國離心離德的歐盟，都在俄羅斯的炮火下紛紛投向美國。🍒
美國的軍工企業也立刻爆紅，各類股票也在上升。F-35戰鬥機炙手可熱，歐洲各國都在搶購，確保在未來的衝突中保持強大的制空權。反坦克的肩射飛彈，這次在烏克蘭戰埸大放異彩，摧毁了逾千輛俄國坦克。🌞
如今歐洲突然出現石油短缺的局面，美國的油價也在飆升，頁岩油立刻水漲船高，成為華爾街的寵兒，捐贈給拜登政府的政治獻金也立刻升高，成為民主黨今年選舉的重要助力。🍅
拜登讓烏克蘭成為美國「借來的戰埸」，借用烏克蘭軍民的死亡，贏得全球同情的眼淚，收割美國外交的利息。但這是一把雙刃劍。美國的佈局乍看讓人嘖嘖稱奇，但是由於用力過猛，產生了意想不到的反彈。🥳
美國制裁了俄海外富豪，没收他們的財產，違反了資本主義的基本原則，破壞了產權神聖不可侵犯的倫理，出現了寒蟬效應，讓全球很多富豪要從美國退出。更深一層的影響是美元的國際信用，被拜登自毁長城。😡
這也使得美元的全球信用高墙，出現了第一道裂缝。而沙特阿拉伯也開出了第一槍，立刻與北京達成協議，輸出石油到中國今後都用人民幣結算，落實「去美元化」的第一步。這也令美國長期以來所擁有的「石油美元」霸主地位，開始動摇。由於美國早就放棄了金本位，錨定美元價值就是靠石油美元，而現在美國則自己撕開一個缺口。😢
印度、南非、中亞諸國也轉向「去美元化」的進程，面對美國的SWIFT的制裁狂飆，越來越多的向中國的CIPS 系統靠攏，用本國貨幣交易，與人民幣對接，甚至進入「電子人民幣」系統，避免被美國賺錢，也避免被美國「卡脖子」。🍻
這等於觸動美國的「命根子」，擊中了美國霸權的關鍵。美元、美債、美軍是美國霸權的「三寶」，但是這次「美元」與「美債」二寶已經被拜登自砍一刀，美國就得面對孤掌難鳴的命運。👏👏

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Asia Weekly – The double-edged sword of Biden’s Ukraine war games