Abbott extends Morrison’s diplomatic disaster by Bruce Haigh Oct 13 2021

Former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott blundered his way on stage in Taipei city to deliver a most imprudent speech to the Yushan Regional Security Forum on October 7. Abbott was accorded all the courtesies of a visiting dignitary, including being received by Tsai Ing-wen.

Prior to Abbott arriving, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the visit was private yet he was accompanied by a senior Australian representative, Jenny Bloomfield. Her presence conferred official status on Abbott’s presence in Taiwan.

However, before further discussing this visit, it should be seen in the context of the Australian nuclear submarine deal announced on September 16 by US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and Morrison. The deal involved scrapping a contract between Australia and France to produce conventional submarines. The French were given no prior warning by Morrison that the deal was to be scrapped, and became exceedingly angry. It was an exhibition of the most appalling diplomacy.

The US said they will build eight nuclear powered submarines for Australia by 2040, but this will more likely be by 2050. Their capacity is stretched, so the British have said they might be able to assist. A major difficulty with the proposal is that Australia is not a nuclear country. It could not service the highly enriched reactors driving the engines. The three-way decision led to the formation of a new defense cooperation arrangement known as AUKUS.

The submarine deal is such an improbable arrangement that it should be seen as a smokescreen for other announcements quietly made at the AUSMIN (Australia-US Ministerial Consultations) talks in September. These saw Australia agree to the home porting of US naval vessels in Australia, including submarines at HMAS Stirling near Fremantle, a permanent US marine deployment in Darwin, and US bombers to be based in the Northern Territory.

This undertaking will have the effect of considerably weakening Australian sovereignty. The US wants to use Australia as it did in WWII, as a military base and launching pad for military activities it might have in mind to the north of Australia. It will be able to undertake these activities without reference to the Australian parliament.

The Australian people will be hostage to the American military/industrial complex. They are already hostage to the Murdoch media empire which controls 70 percent of Australian information services. The combination has Australia acting as a vassal state of the US with the people unable or unwilling to question any significant developments taking place around them. The comparative wealth of the extensive Australian middle class does not incentivize them to question the comfortable isolated cocoon of the status quo.

For Morrison, the submarine ‘deal’ and the American guarantees of closer defense relationship play into his election strategy of a strong pro-American, anti-Chinese narrative.

Morrison is not bright and cares little about anyone except himself. He has little interest in the damage he is causing to the long and carefully nurtured relationship with China. To him, China is a foreign and hostile entity. He believes he can play to his domestic base because the US has his back. It does not. It only has its own interests at heart, it only ever has. Morrison’s electoral base is narrow, passively racist and as noted above, and inward looking. Morrison is hoping to stoke fear and push chase uncommitted voters toward his party. It is short term, all about him, and destructive. It is neither constructive nor creative.

This is where Abbott pops into the picture. A weak man with limited intellect, he is a bully easily manipulated. He has been seized upon by those close to Morrison to deliver anti-China message in Taipei as part of the ruling Liberal National Party election strategy. His presence as a keynote speaker has been easy enough to organize with the Taiwan authorities – an all-expenses junket with a handsome fee thrown in. He is little more than an unbalanced pawn in the picture.

Prior to his Yushan speech, Abbott had not expressed himself in such rabid terms about China. The Abbott speech was in advance of anything he has said so far. So, who wrote it? It contained a strong message and a line that has been pushed by the US arms industry funded ‘think tank’ – the anti-China Australian Security Policy Institute (ASPI). The tone reflected the language we have become used to from ASPI. Did they write the speech and work with Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade to help organize the visit?

ASPI has become Morrison’s preferred organization on foreign affairs and defense issues. ASPI are assuming a greater role in the formulation of Australian foreign and defense policies. They appear to have become a conduit for the input of US policy.

Abbott’s intervention has all the hallmarks of Canberra’s approval if not backing. It has about the same inept diplomacy which has seen the collapse in relations with China, France and the EU. Talk of war to defend Taiwan is beyond the comprehension and capacity of the Australian ruling party, and their media backers.

The author is a retired Australian Diplomat and political commentator. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

Gun violence hits US minors by Liu Rui Oct 13 2021

PLA drills target secessionists, foreign interference amid despicable DPP moves: Taiwan Affairs Office by Global Times Oct 13 2021

A fighter jet attached to an aviation brigade of the air force under the PLA Southern Theater Command taxies on the runway to get ready for a round-the-clock training exercise on Sept. 8, 2021.

Recent military exercises launched by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the Taiwan Straits aimed at “Taiwan independence” secessionist moves and interference by foreign forces, and they are necessary actions to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council said on Wednesday.

Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesperson at the office, made the remarks at a regular press conference when being asked about the recent propaganda made by the ruling secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) on the island, which hyped “military threats” from the Chinese mainland and instigating confrontations.

The goal of the PLA drills is to fundamentally safeguard the overall interests of the Chinese nation and the immediate interests of compatriots on both sides of the Straits, Ma said.

The DPP authorities and “Taiwan independence” secessionists misjudged the situation, colluded with foreign forces and kept making provocations in search of “independence,” and this is the root that caused the current tensions in the Taiwan Straits, Ma said, noting that “Taiwan independence” will only bring catastrophe to compatriots on the island, and only resolutely stopping such moves can protect their safety and well-being.

More than 150 PLA aircraft have held drills in the Taiwan’s self-proclaimed southwest air defense identification zone since October, according to releases by the island’s defense authorities.

Taiwan’s defense authorities recently said the PLA will have the capability to comprehensively “attack” the island by 2025, and the current situation in the Straits is the most severe one in 40 years.

Ma reiterated that the source of the complications, tensions and oppositions in the cross-Straits relations is the DPP authorities’ collusion with foreign forces and the increasing provocations to seek “independence.”

In response to Taiwan regional leader Tsai Ing-wen’s recent statement, claiming she was willing to talk to the mainland on the condition of reciprocity and no political premises, Ma said that the DPP is claiming to be open to talks, but seeking “independence” and colluding with foreign forces even more at the same time.

This despicable, double-faced move is deception to not only compatriots on the island, but also the international community, Ma said.

Ma also slammed Tsai’s “Double Ten” speech delivered on Sunday. Tsai for the first time claimed that the island of Taiwan and the Chinese mainland are no subordinate to each other.

The fact that both the mainland and Taiwan belong to China has never changed and will never change, and the cross-Straits relations are never relations between countries, Ma said.

Tsai’s statement is blatantly selling a “two-state theory,” but no matter how she whitewashes the idea of “Taiwan independence,” it cannot hide the evil purpose of secession, Ma said.

NW China’s Xinjiang to inoculate booster shots to adults by Global Times Oct 13 2021

Residents in the Wuqia County in the Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, Northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, receive COVID-19 vaccine on June 5, 2021.

Northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has become the latest region in the country to launch a booster shot of COVID-19 vaccines for its residents. Instead of focusing on key groups, the region said it will provide the shot to all local adults who completed vaccination six months prior.

Local media ts.cn reported on Wednesday that the region plans to provide booster shots from October to December to vaccine receivers aged 18 and above who have been inoculated with two shots of inactivated vaccines or one shot of adenovirus vector vaccine for more than six months.

The level of antibodies in vaccine recipients decline, even disappear, after a certain period following the inoculation. One more shot at this time would not only boost the antibody level, but also expand the antibody repertoire, ts.cn reported, citing experts from Xinjiang regional disease control and prevention center.

So far, at least 13 provinces and regions in China, such as East China’s Anhui and Fujian provinces and Central China’s Hubei Province, have initiated programs to enhance residents’ immunity against COVID-19.

“Studies prove that the level of neutralizing antibodies would decline after six months following inoculation, a booster shot at this time would enhance antibodies and prolong protection, as well as largely increase efficacy to prevent infection and hospitalization,” Jin Hui, a public health expert from Southeast University, told people.cn on Wednesday.

But Jin noted that every person should receive one booster shot, but it does not mean that recipients should receive one shot every six months.

Video: Australian Puppets of American Empire Expose Themselves. In this video we dig into a revealing little slip up that helped solidify how artificial the anti-China rhetoric in Australia really is and how the pro-war rhetoric has created an environment where the anti-china sentiment is being used as a weapon against other Australian citizens.
https://youtu.be/IeLoZnWsAl8

Video: US Sanctions Cambodia for Cutting Strings to US-backed Puppets. The US is targeting individuals in the Cambodian government with sanctions for allegedly “suppressing democracy.” In reality Cambodia is defending against US-funded interference.

Cambodia’s main opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) is literally based in Washington D.C. with exiled politicians fleeing to the US and conspiring with the US government in their bid to return home and seize power.

This is yet another example of the US using economic coercion to punish nations for not submitting to Washington-sponsored interference in their internal political affairs – interference prohibited under the UN Charter.

Professor John Wash, MD, San Francisco: French Finance Minister Issues Declaration Of Independence – From The US 法國財政部長發布獨立宣言 – 和美國切割

“Clear Differences Remain Between France and the U.S, French Minister Says,” is the headline to a remarkable piece appearing in the New York Times today. The Minister, Bruno Le Maire, is brutally frank on the nature of the differences as the quotations below Illustrate. (Emphases in the quotations are jvw’s.) In fact, they amount to a Declaration of Independence of France and EU from the US.

It is not surprising that the differences relate to China after the brouhaha over the sale of US nuclear submarines to Australia and the surprising (to the French) cancellation of contracts with France for submarines. Mr. LeMaire, sounding very much like a reproving parent, characterized this as “misbehavior from the US administration.”

Mr. LeMaire made it crystal clear that the disagreement over submarines is symptomatic of deeper differences in world view that have emerged not only in France but in the EU as a consequence of China’s rise. The article states:

“‘The United States wants to confront China. The European Union wants to engage China,’ Mr. Le Maire, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron of France, said in a wide-ranging interview ahead of the (IMF) meetings. This was natural, he added, because the United States is the world’s leading power and does not ‘want China to become in a few years or in a few decades the first superpower in the world.

“Europe’s strategic priority, by contrast, is independence, ‘which means to be able to build more capacities on defense, to defend its own view on the fight against climate change, to defend its own economic interest, to have access to key technologies and not be too dependent on American technologies,’ he said.”

The article continued, quoting the Finance Minister:

“The key question now for the European Union, he said, is to become ‘independent from the United States, able to defend its own interests, whether economic or strategic interests.’”

LeMaire might have pre-ambled that statement with: “When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.”

Still, seasoned diplomat that Mr. LeMaire is, he provided some cold comfort to the naughty US administration, saying, the United States remains “our closest partner” in terms of values, economic model, respect for the rule of law, and embrace of freedom. But with China, he said, “we do not share the same values or economic model.”

The article continued:

“Asked if differences over China meant inevitable divergence between the United States and Europe, Mr. Le Maire said, ‘It could be if we are not cautious.’ But every effort should be made to avoid this, which means ‘recognizing Europe as one of the three superpowers in the world for the 21st century,’ alongside the United States and China.”

The piece concluded;

“One of the biggest lingering points of contention is over metal tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump imposed globally in 2018. Officials face difficult negotiations in coming weeks. Europeans plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on a range of US products as of Dec. 1, unless Mr. Biden pulls back a 25 percent duty on European steel and a 10 percent tax on aluminum.

“‘If we want to improve the bilateral economic relationship between the continents, the first step must be for the United States to lift the sanctions in the steel and aluminum case,’ Mr. Le Maire said. ‘We are fed up with the trade wars,’ he added.”

Shared values are nice, but shared profits are clearly better.

John V. Walsh, until recently a Professor at the University of Massachusetts Medical School and now residing in the Bay Area, has written on issues of peace and health care for Asia Times, EastBayTimes/Mercury News, Antiwar.com, CounterPunch, and others.

French Finance Minister Issues Declaration of Independence – From the US

Hong Kong Identification Cards.

香港永久居民｜網傳換身份證填錯國籍會失「3粒星」？ 智能身份證「3粒星」真正含意大解構 發佈時間: 2020/12/14

相信不少人都認為香港身份證上的「3粒星」標誌，是代表「香港永久性居民」之意，但其實又是否正確？近日網傳更換新智能身份證時，如果填外國籍，便會失去「3粒星」，亦即失去「香港永久性居民」的資格。入境處曾解釋，身份證上「3粒星」標誌為持證人申領香港特別行政區回港證的資格；除非另外申報國籍變更，否則申請人不會喪失中國籍。

近日網民一則訊息，指如果擁有雙重國籍，去換智能身份證時填寫上中國籍，才可保留中國籍身分，否則以後在港只能是「外國人身份證」，會失去所有香港人享有的福利，

「身份證上會被取消3粒星，日後在港睇醫生住院，是當外國人收費呀！到時想返轉頭要求更改資料就冇得改，記得提醒親友呀！」

但入境處早前曾解釋，除非是申請人另外作出申報國籍變更的申請，否則即使在更換新智能身份證的申請表上填寫其他國籍，也不代表其在香港已經失去中國籍，又或導致身份證上失去「3粒星」標誌。

香港身份證5大冷知識

香港永久居民｜網傳換身份證填錯國籍會失「3粒星」？ 智能身份證「3粒星」真正含意大解構

（入境處圖片）

1. 「3粒星」代表香港永久居民？

根據入境處資料，「3粒星」並不代表香港永久居民。香港永久性居民身份證上的「**」標誌，所代表的是「持證人年齡為18歲或以上及有資格申領香港特別行政區回港證」；如果是「」，即僅「1粒星」，則代表「持證人年齡為11歲至17歲及有資格申領香港特別行政區回港證」。

2. 跟在「星星」後的英文字母有何含意？

至於「星星」後面有兩個英文字母，第一個字母代表「持證人在香港的居留身分」，其中「A」代表「持證人擁有香港居留權」、「C」代表「持證人登記領證時在香港的居留受到入境事務處處長的限制」、「R」代表「持證人擁有香港入境權」、「U」代表「持證人登記領證時在香港的居留不受入境事務處處長的限制」。

而跟在「A」、「C」、「R」、「U」後面的第2個字母則代表「持證人申報的出生地」，「Z」代表香港」、「X」代表內地、「W」代表澳門、「O」代表其他地區。至於「B」則為「持證人所報稱的出生日期或地點自首次登記以來，曾作出更改」，「N」為「持證人所報稱的姓名自首次登記以後，曾作出更改」。

3. 有「*」能自助入境澳門？

只有在身份證上有「」或「**」的「星星」標記的香港居民，以及有香港入境權「R」標記的身份證持有人，可以使用澳門特別行政區的「e-道」自助出入境，但記得需預先登記。而香港永久性居民身份證持有人，更可在澳門逗留最長1年。

4. 身份證號碼的首位字母代表甚麼？

大多身份證號碼都由一個英文字母加上6個數字組成，而開首的字母均代表不同含義：

A：首批身份證，1949-1962年間在簽發，大部份人在1950年代之前出生
B：1955-1960年在市區辦事處簽發
C：1960-1983年在新界辦事處簽發，多於1946-1971年間香港出生
D：1960-1983年在港島辦事處簽發，多於1946-1971年間香港出生
E：1955-1969年在九龍辦事處簽發，多於1946-1962年間香港出生
F：2020年2月24日起首次獲簽發身份證的人士
G：1967-1983年在九龍辦事處簽發，多於1956-1971年間出生
H：1979-1983年間在港島辦事處簽發，多於1968-1971年間出生，以香港以外出生者為主
J：領事館僱員
K：1983年3月28日至1990年7月31日首次登記身份證人士，多於1972-1979年出生
M：2011年8月1日起首次登記身份證的人士，多於2000年起在香港外出生
N：2019年6月1日起於香港登記出生的人士
P：1990年8月1日至2000年12月27日首次登記身份證的人士
R：2000年12月28日至2011年7月31日首次登記身份證的人士
S：2005年4月1日起於香港登記出生的人士
T：1983-1997年間簽發，電腦系統故障時使用的備用號碼，故很少人持有
V：1983年3月28日至2003年8月31日獲簽發簽證身份書的11歲前以下兒童
W：1989年11月10日至2009年1月1日首次登記身份證的外籍勞工及外籍家庭傭工
Y：1989年1月1日至2005年3月於香港登記出生的人士
Z：1980年1月1日至1988年12月31日於香港登記出生的人士

由於「M」是最後的身份證字母單位，故「M」字頭用完後，政府會引入雙字母的身份證號碼。另外，某些字母如「L」、「T」則是電腦系統故障時使用的備用號碼，則因此比較罕見。至於「N」字頭則因易生混亂，而被政府棄用，據指當局只曾簽發一張「N」字頭的身份證，但現時2019年6月後出生的人士已在使用。

5. 身份證號碼括號內數字有何作用？

根據入境處資料，括號內的數字或字母並非身份證號碼的一部分，純為方便電腦處理資料而設。而坊間則流傳一個計法，括號內的數字是可據身份證首7個字母及數字計算出來，因此身份證號碼只要抄錯一個字，括號內的數字即不相符，故可用來驗證是否有誤。

計算方法：

1. 以A=1、B=2的形式 ，將字母換成數字，如此類推
2. 由左至右將每個數字分別乘8、7、6、5、4、3、2，並將結果相加（若字首有兩個英文字母，換算後將首個數字乘9)
3. 將總和除以11，若除得盡，則括號內數字是「0」；若有餘數則以11減之，得出結果便是括號內數字。若餘數等於或大於10，括號內就變成「A」

例子１：C123456(9)
C＝3×8＝24
1＝1×7＝7
2＝2×6＝12
3＝3×5＝15
4＝4×4＝16
5＝5×3＝15
6＝6×2＝12

將以上數字相加會等於101，再除以11，餘數則為2 (直式計算)；然後11減2，等於9，所以括號內數字為9 。

例子２：A123456 (3)
A＝1×8＝8
1＝1×7＝7
2＝2×6＝12
3＝3×5＝15
4＝4×4＝16
5＝5×3＝15
6＝6×2＝12

將以上數字相加會等於85，由於要加上3才能被11整除，故該身份證號碼最後括號內的數字是「3」。

【智能身份證】1970-72年出生11月2日起可換證 換身份證最新時間表一覽，詳情即睇：【下一頁】

《晴報》責任編輯：李凱晴

EU want to engage China, US want to confront China, they are not on the same page. Clear Differences Remain Between France and U.S., French Minister Says. 歐盟想與中國接觸合作, 美國想對抗中國，他們不在同一頁上。法國部長說，法國和美國之間仍然存在明顯差異.

Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire says the two countries remain at odds over China and various security issues, even if they had effectively cooperated on overhauling the international tax system. By Liz Alderman and Roger Cohen Oct. 11, 2021

PARIS — As global finance leaders gather this week in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund, Bruno Le Maire, the finance minister of France, made clear that effective French-American cooperation on an overhaul of the international tax system could not mask stark differences on China and other issues.

“The United States wants to confront China. The European Union wants to engage China,” Mr. Le Maire, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron of France, said in a wide-ranging interview ahead of the meetings. This was natural, he added, because the United States is the world’s leading power and does not “want China to become in a few years or in a few decades the first superpower in the world.”

Europe’s strategic priority, by contrast, is independence, “which means to be able to build more capacities on defense, to defend its own view on the fight against climate change, to defend its own economic interest, to have access to key technologies and not be too dependent on American technologies,” he said.

His remarks reflected unresolved tensions that came to the surface last month in a furious disagreement between France and the United States over President Biden’s decision to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia. The deal replaced an earlier French contract to sell Australia conventional submarines. Mr. Macron was not informed of Australia’s plans until the last minute.

“Clearly there has been at least an important misunderstanding between France and the United States, and there has also been, I would say, misbehavior from the U.S. administration,” Mr. Le Maire said.

The key question now for the European Union, he said, is to become “independent from the United States, able to defend its own interests, whether economic or strategic interests.” Still, he added, the United States remains “our closest partner” in terms of values, economic model, respect for the rule of law, and embrace of freedom.

But with China, he said, “we do not share the same values or economic model.”

Shanghai’s financial district. Mr. Le Maire says France and the United States disagree over confronting or engaging with China, and its surging economy.

Shanghai’s financial district. Mr. Le Maire says France and the United States disagree over confronting or engaging with China, and its surging economy. Credit…Hector Retamal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
France and the United States are striving to repair the damage from the submarine deal, and the French ambassador, who was recalled to Paris in protest, has returned to Washington. Mr. Macron, who will meet Mr. Biden this month, wants to see a greater American commitment to independent European defense ambitions that he says would be complementary to NATO, as well as evidence of American respect for European strategic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Asked if differences over China meant inevitable divergence between the United States and Europe, Mr. Le Maire said, “It could be if we are not cautious.” But every effort should be made to avoid this, which means “recognizing Europe as one of the three superpowers in the world for the 21st century,” alongside the United States and China.

An area where Europe and the United States have been working in lock step is on financial reform. Efforts to press the most sweeping overhaul of the international tax system in a century are nearing a breakthrough.

Finance ministers of the Group of 20 largest economies are expected to back an accord at the I.M.F. meetings as early as Wednesday, following a landmark deal last week by nearly 140 countries to create a 15 percent global minimum corporate tax and new rules that would force corporate and technology giants like Amazon and Facebook to pay an appropriate share of tax wherever they operate.
The pact, intended to crack down on tax havens that have drained countries of much-needed revenue, follows months of negotiations that have included intense behind-the-scenes lobbying by Mr. Le Maire and the U.S. Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen.

Mr. Le Maire said that he had worked “very well with Janet Yellen on many key issues,” and was determined to improve the relationship between the two countries. “But it is also up to the United States to take some decisions in the right direction to restore confidence between the two continents and between the two countries.”

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Mr. Le Maire at a meeting of Group of 7 finance ministers in London in June.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Mr. Le Maire at a meeting of Group of 7 finance ministers in London in June.

One of the biggest lingering points of contention is over metal tariffs that former President Donald J. Trump imposed globally in 2018. Officials face difficult negotiations in coming weeks. Europeans plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on a range of U.S. products as of Dec. 1, unless Mr. Biden pulls back a 25 percent duty on European steel and a 10 percent tax on aluminum.
“If we want to improve the bilateral economic relationship between the continents, the first step must be for the United States to lift the sanctions in the steel and aluminum case,” Mr. Le Maire said. “We are fed up with the trade wars,” he added. “It is clearly not in the interest of the United States and not in the interest of the E.U.”

Improving economic stability in the wake of the pandemic is crucial. Mr. Le Maire has overseen a massive aid program to steer France out of a historic recession that included generous state funding to prevent mass layoffs by subsidizing wages and relief for businesses struggling to pay their bills.

The support is now being wound down as the economy stabilizes amid widespread vaccinations. The economy is expected to grow 6.25 percent this year, while unemployment, a political lightning rod six months from a presidential election, is projected to fall to 7.6 percent by year-end, the lowest in over a decade.

The rebound is crucial as France gears up for its election in April. Mr. Le Maire said he is starting a political movement to back the re-election of President Macron.

The far right is presenting a strong challenge as Éric Zemmour, a writer and TV celebrity known for his anti-immigrant nationalism, gains ground in political polls by tapping into insecurity over immigration and fears of rising economic inequality from globalization.

“You have extremist parties rising everywhere in Europe and everywhere in the Western countries because many people are afraid of what is happening due to climate change, due to the technological revolution, due to the important moves of migration,” Mr. Le Maire said. “The best way to fight against extremist parties is to get results,” he said.

But in the country where the anti-elite Yellow Vest protest movement raged for many months, starting in 2018, Mr. Le Maire acknowledged that the frustrations that fueled the mass protests could flare again in France and spread to other European countries if inequality worsens as governments try to tackle climate change by shifting away from cheap fuel to renewable energy sources.

With the price of energy needed to bridge that transition hitting record highs, “climate transition remains a risk for all of us, for all democracies, because it will be very costly — far more costly than expected,” Mr. Le Maire said.

“I really think that a new Yellow Vest movement remains possible everywhere within Europe,” he added. Securing a global tax deal will be crucial to help avoid that by bringing governments a vital source of new revenue to reduce inequality divides, he said.

The Diplomat: Understanding China’s Aerial Incursions Into Taiwan’s ADIZ – China’s incursions are meant more as a signal to the United States than a military threat to Taiwan. 外交雜誌: 了解中國對台灣防空識別區的空中入侵 – 中國的入侵更多是向美國發出信號，而不是對台灣的軍事威脅。By Adrian Ang U-Jin and Olli Pekka Suorsa June 02, 2021

In this Feb. 10, 2020, file photo and released by the Republic of China (ROC) Ministry of National Defense, a Taiwanese Air Force F-16 in foreground flies on the flank of a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) H-6 bomber as it passes near Taiwan.

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have risen sufficiently for The Economist to declare on the cover of its May 1, 2021 edition that Taiwan is now “the most dangerous place on Earth.” According to this narrative, Beijing has invested heavily in military capabilities that it can now bring to bear in a confrontation over Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province. The Chinese Communist Party has never forsworn the use of force to achieve Taiwan’s unification with the mainland. To that end, China has only merely ramped up economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, but dispatched aircraft across the previously-mutually respected median line, intruded into the island’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) with ever-increasing numbers of incursions and sorties, deployed its naval forces to conduct “combat drills” off the coast, and increased fiery rhetoric.

For many observers, these actions constitute ipso facto “proof” that the Chinese military threat to Taiwan is at its highest point since the 1995-96 Taiwan Strait missile crisis. However, we maintain that Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ serve multiple purposes beyond saber-rattling toward Taiwan: signaling Beijing’s displeasure at Washington’s diplomatic engagement with Taipei; surveillance of sea and air traffic in the strategically important Bashi channel; as a countervailing show of force against U.S. Navy operations near Chinese waters and the northern South China Sea; and a demonstration of a “new normal” as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) expands its training and exercise routines farther from its coast and over open sea. We argue that Chinese air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ have had the U.S. in their crosshairs more often than Taipei.

Media attention has focused primarily on the PLA’s large-scale incursions, like the one that occurred on April 12, which saw the single largest incursion into Taiwan’s ADIZ thus far – 14 J-16 fighters, four J-10 fighters, four H-6K bombers, and two Y-8 ASW planes. Empirically, however, these high-profile, large-scale incursions are rare occurrences. Since Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) started making the data publicly available in mid-September 2020, only six incursions out of a total of 173 or 3.5 percent (as of June 1, 2021) have involved 15 or more sorties. Ninety percent of incursions involve no more than four sorties, 3.5 percent involve five to nine sorties, and fewer than 3 percent involve 10-14 aircraft.

Furthermore, a plausible argument can be made that with each of the large-scale incursions, Beijing was reacting to provocations from Washington regarding some form of diplomatic or political overture to Taipei. For instance, the incursion on April 12, 2021 was triggered by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s warning to Beijing that it would be a “serious mistake” to try to change the Taiwan status quo by force. The 20-sortie incursion on March 26 was in response to the United States and Taiwan signing an agreement establishing a Coast Guard Working Group to coordinate policy. Earlier, the large-scale Chinese incursions on September 18 and 19, 2020 that saw PLA aircraft cross the median line were in response to the visit by U.S. Undersecretary of State Keith Krach, the most senior State Department representative to visit the island since 1979. It is notable that since the September 2020 high-profile and high-risk incidents, no major median line violations have occurred. Since then, all publicly announced incursions have taken place around the southwestern portion of Taiwan’s ADIZ.

The Taiwan MND data indicate that nearly 80 percent of Chinese intrusions involve no more than two sorties, and that of these 134 small-scale incursions, approximately 70 percent involve the dispatch of at least one KQ-200 maritime patrol and anti-submarine warfare (MPA-ASW) aircraft. These almost-daily MPA-ASW aircraft sorties near the Bashi Channel are linked to China’s interest in monitoring foreign warship movements in and out of the South China Sea, and practicing the difficult skill of searching and tracking, or “prosecuting,” of foreign submarines entering China’s “near seas.”

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Detecting foreign underwater activity in and near the shallow Bashi Channel offers arguably the best and first line of defense against any foreign submarine intrusions, before they are able to reach the PLA’s South China Sea “bastion.” As part of China’s anti-access strategy, the control of the entrance points – straits and channels – is of critical importance. In the big picture, therefore, it is not surprising that Chinese aircraft patrol frequently near the Bashi Channel in the south and Miyako Strait in the north. For these reasons, China is likely to continue or, even, increase its maritime surveillance activities within the southwestern part of Taiwan’s ADIZ, near the Bashi Channel, and other critical sea lines of communications along the first island chain in the future, regardless of the geopolitical status of Taiwan.

By combining the MND-published data with other OSINT information, especially data published by SCSPI on the U.S. Navy’s ship and aircraft movements, we can infer that China has also intruded into Taiwan’s ADIZ in a countervailing show of force in response to a U.S. carrier strike group’s high intensity and high visibility operations in the northern part of the South China Sea. We argue this has been the case on January 23-24, 2021, February 19-20, and April 20, coinciding with the USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG’s presence missions in and around the South China Sea. The January 23 incident was also the first time the PLA Air Force scrambled its H-6K bombers to greet the carrier strike group. Since then, the H-6K bombers and other maritime strike capable combat aircraft have become a frequent sight in such high visibility incidents (for example, February 20 and April 12). Noticeably, during earlier U.S. Navy carrier strike group movements in the South China Sea, like in October 2020, China sent only MPA and ISR aircraft to monitor the U.S. activities. On April 20, 2021, another large-scale formation, including nine combat aircraft, confronted the USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG again, but with no known bomber presence.

It has been noticeable that each Chinese aircraft formation has involved at least one maritime patrol aircraft and other “enablers” like airborne early-warning and control aircraft or intelligence gathering and electronic warfare platforms, demonstrating high levels of sophistication. The presence of the maritime patrol aircraft further suggest that the target of these large-scale incursions has indeed been the U.S. Navy, not Taiwan. What the formations have also demonstrated is impressive maturation in coordination between theatre commands (Southern and Eastern); between the PLAAF and PLA Naval Air Force; and among different air brigades and air bases—a lesson that should not be taken lightly.

Based on our analysis of publicly available data, we can see that since mid-September 2020, when the MND began publishing its data, Chinese air incursions have grown both in quantity and intensity, with the bulk of the intrusions demonstrating the “new normal” or the more capable and confident PLA maintaining near-daily training and patrol sorties near critical choke points, including the Bashi Channel. We have also shown that the recorded incursions between September 2020 and May 2021 were predominantly directed at exigencies other than Taiwan and more directly about challenging and monitoring of the U.S. naval and air presence in the region and reacting to Washington’s diplomatic and political overtures to Taipei.

AUTHORS/GUEST AUTHOR
Adrian Ang U-Jin
Dr. Adrian Ang U-Jin is a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), in Singapore.
GUEST AUTHOR
Olli Pekka Suorsa
Dr. Olli Pekka Suorsa is a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), in Singapore.

Good article explaining the air flights. They are signals to the US, not Taiwan.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/understanding-chinas-aerial-incursions-into-taiwans-adiz/

Each set of sorties corresponds to very specific US threats, violations, and breaches of the 1 China agreement.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/understanding-chinas-aerial-incursions-into-taiwans-adiz/

4/12/21 Blinken’s threat to China “serious mistake to change status by force”

3/26/21: US-Taiwan Coastguard agreement

9/18-19/20: US Undersecretary for defense Keith Krach’s visit to Taiwan
Mostly in SW portion of ADIZ

Surveilles Bashi-Channel (and Miyako strait) conducting anti-submarine surveillance

Coordination exercises between PLAN and PLAAF