On Russian Chinese cooperation – perfect timing in modern history

On Russian Chinese cooperation – perfect timing in modern history 論俄中合作 – 近代史上的完美時機

Russia and China have a complex historical relationship. Tsarist Russia was very aggressive towards China and is the country that grabbed a great expanse of territory from China. Many Chinese, especially of the older generation, still resent this.

But as you know, many Chinese, particularly those who believe in Marxism, appreciate the fact that the Russians were the ones who brought Marxism to China, and helped China to build its first modern army in the Huangpu Military Academy in the 1920s, run by the KMT and the CCP.

During the Korean war, China fought the US to a standstill, which amounted to a Chinese victory in view of the huge military advantage the US had. Because of the Korean war, the Soviets helped China to build its munitions and heavy industry, which formed the backbone of the present Chinese industrial prowess. Very few if any other country in the global south has been able to do so. That is one reason why China now has the most complete industrial base of any country in the world. To help China during the early 1950s Russia had to send engineers and detailed engineering plans to China to do so. After almost a century of war, China was barely able to even manufacture nails in 1949. The Chinese government modeled itself after the Soviets, including government structures and education.

The two countries had a fall out in the late 1950s because China refused to let the Soviets control its military, like what the Soviets did to its E. European satellites. Russia withdrew its engineers and advisors suddenly, and China had to repay the huge loan from the Soviets by shipping food and natural resources like minerals and coal to Russia. This probably was one of the causes of the great Chinese famine in the early 1960s.

On the other hand, because of the territory Russia had grabbed from China, and the fact that Asian Russia is sparsely populated, Russia has always been suspicious of Chinese intentions until now. This is one reason why the BRI was stymied in central Asia until recently. Now Russia seems willing to let the Chinese help it develop Siberian natural resources and agriculture. So while things appear to be hunky dory now between the two countries, it is helpful to recall the prior history between them; there may be grounds for a less cooperative relation if things change.

I agree with you that in economics, Russia and China have complementary strengths, and there is great potential for their cooperation in space, BRI, diplomacy (e.g. India). I also agree with you that the view of Russia being merely an outpost for China in Europe is the wrong way to view the relationship. And it may even be inaccurate to view Russia as a prize for China. I think Russia’s potential has been underrated, especially in the west. Even though not as strong a country as China, Russia has its own strengths. If it can learn to reform its oligarchic form of government, its historical achievements in 1917, its rapid industrialization and WWII bode well for its future. Even now, as shown in the Ukrainian war, Russia is a country to be reckoned with even now.

There are many benefits to the cooperation between Russia and China. The greatest benefit, probably, comes from the push by the two to form a new block of global south countries using the BRICS countries as the foundation. This new block can have its own currency and trade exchange monitoring system to replace SWIFT in the trading between the countries in the block. This may mark the beginning of the end of the dollar empire. Iran and Argentina have applied to join BRICS, and there are rumors that the Saudis, Turkey and Egypt may join as well. If true, this new block will control the bulk of the world’s energy and a large part of the energy trade in the world. This will then form the support for the currency of the block, in the same way that the petrodollar supports the dollar.

In geopolitics, the two countries, together with Iran, may form the backbone of the world island that Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzeziński was so afraid of, which will marginalize outskirt islands like the US, UK and Japan. The land part of the BRI may offer a better alternative for trade than the sea route in the world island, including the middle east, central Asia and Europe as well as Russia and China. Just as the dominance of sea going trading that arose starting in the seventeenth century caused the demise of the Ottoman Empire, the blossoming of the land route in preference over the sea route may cause the weakening of the island countries. The Arctic sea route for Chinese goods controlled by Russia may also offer a shorter route than the long way through the Suez canal and Indian Ocean in Europe-Asia trade. It will also bypass the choke point at the Malacca Strait controlled by the US.

While the US is busy making trouble for Russia in Europe and China in the western Pacific, Russia and China are making great inroads in the middle east (ME). The traditional conflicts fostered or even created by the west in the area seem to be abating after the US withdrawal from the ME and the spectacular failure of the Arab Spring in the 2010’s which is now widely recognized in the area as an Arab winter. Now a good part of the ME intelligentsia seems to recognize that the path to modernization preached by the west (first introduce democracy, then follow the neoliberal path to development) is the wrong way to go. Instead they are looking to China and seeking assistance from China to build its infrastructure and industry, where China is welcomingly agnostic regarding the form of government. They realize that the world will move on to green energy soon, and their days relying only on energy exports are numbered. China is the only country that can help them do so.

The US has been the troublemaker in the area. Its withdrawal left room for countries in the area to work together to their mutual benefit. The Saudis appeared to be softening its opposition to Iran, and rapprochement may be in the air. For the first time in ages, the Sunnis and Shiites may be able to work together. Russia has been effective in the area using its military to stop the US initiated civil wars in the area. China has been effectively using its economic and financial power to build strong relations with all the countries in the area, including all of the feuding ones (Israel, Iran, Saudis, other gulf states) in areas like 5G, COVID vaccines, infrastructure and even in arms exports. I didn’t know until recently that the Saudis bought missile systems from China as early as 1988, and Chinese arms sales to the Saudis continued afterwards. China has been building a most modern and efficient Haifa port on the Mediterranean Coast for Israel, to the chagrin of the US. China signed a 25 year deal with Iran last year to provide up to $400 billion of investments. China built the Mecca–Medina high-speed railway for Saudi Arabia. With Russia providing security to the ME and China the economic, financial and high tech capability, the ME may finally see some good days ahead, instead of the incessant wars plaguing the area.