
How to Crack the current western propaganda attack? by Meng Yuan Wang 如何破解當前歐美的宣傳攻勢 作家:王孟源 2021/04/26
This week, the European Union responded to the call of the United States to use Xinjiang as a handle to impose sanctions on China. On the surface, the two are complicit and colluding, but in fact, there are essential differences in the starting points of Europe and the United States: the United States is the initiator, and the power elite behind its system proceeds from protecting its own international interests, and must crack down on any country whose national strength has risen to a level that threatens hegemony, so as early as a decade ago, propaganda excuses were arranged in advance, brainwashing its domestic and foreign audiences, and preparing to make all-round slander against China. Europe is the biggest and most important audience.
In recent years, the propaganda of the American establishment party at home and abroad has been labeled by the Chinese-speaking circles as 白左”white left”; in fact, it is a repackaging of old Christianity and racism, hidden deep in the sugar-coated shell made of the vocabulary of modern science and ethics, which is still the innate superiority of caucasians and the savior of all mankind; the doctrine spread by caucasians is universal Truth; the international system ruled by caucasians, is a natural law and inviolable. But anyone who dares to reject these principles is a bad person, even a non-human. Any means can be used to knock them down into hell.
This white-left ideology, which ostensibly opposes religion and racism, but actually inherits its irrational sense of self-superiority, originated in the United States and Northern Europe in the 1960s, and soon spread throughout the Western industrial countries, becoming the basis of the mainstream academic, media, and intellectual class worldview. In recent years, it has become more extreme, resulting in the “Woke Culture” and “Cancel Culture” as an extreme form of “Political correctness.” Because white-left propaganda enjoys the freedom to fabricate things that are divorced from the truth or reality and do not have to be self-consistent in their own logic, the American right, which still adheres to the old religion and racism, also relies on the obliteration of facts and the violation of logic to compete with it in order to intimidate each other. This opposition often confuses the outside observer into thinking that the struggle between true and false, good and evil, is actually two sides of the same stupid, false, evil, ugly culture.
Therefore, when China, an independent country established by people of color, independent of the Western religious ideology system, and unwilling to be exploited, is highly industrialized and rises to the point where it may sit on an equal footing with the Western world, it not only threatens the hegemonic interests of the United States, but also the deep-rooted sense of superiority in Euro-American civilization. Since this sense of superiority is the common core of the ideas of the left and right factions in Europe and the United States, it can naturally be used to unify their positions against the outside world.
Seeing through the essence of the Western propaganda ideology allows us to despise them strategically; but tactically, they have a hundred years of experience in packaging countless capital interests, and they are not bound by facts and logic. Their tactics are multifaceted with many variations. We therefore must pay careful and close attention to their tactics.
Intellectuals in Europe and the United States are also deceived by white-left ideas, and they are all in the second-hand in the chain of lies. The political and economic leadership of the United States is the first-hand initiator, while the political and economic elite in Europe is in a passive position of the third hand. In the process of choosing countermeasures, we must fully understand and consider this difference. The most immediate effect is that the media and audience in the United States (as well as the Anglo-Saxon countries such as britain, Australia, and Canada) are completely unable to accept any arguments and reasoning, which can be ignored. Europe is the one who is being deceived and used, and it should be the focus of China’s propaganda counterattack; but just as all the victims who have fallen into the brainwashing of cults or pyramid schemes have become addicted to irrational and anti-scientific thinking, simply listing facts and logic is bound to be ineffective. Repeatedly stating standard conclusions, which is the accustomed way in the Chinese bureaucracy, will only have a counterproductive effect.
The only feasible solution here is to take advantage of the self-contradictions in the white left’s thinking and follow their own narrative rules to point out their violations of the dogmas they believe in. Because they are immune to facts and logic, these propaganda counterattacks cannot have any depth or length, and the more simple and brief the better. In other words, the recent Chinese envoys stationed abroad who have published long statements listing facts and arguments are wasting their time and resources. The correct tactic is to focus on one topic at a time, explain it clearly in one or two sentences, emphasize it repeatedly, and then use simple examples to prove it. These examples do not need to have a logically rigorous causation to the core issue, but they must be irrefutable and has a clear correlation.
When applied on the issue of Xinjiang, these counter arguments are that the West has violated its own principles of “presumption of innocence” and that China has not received a “fair trial” in public opinion。 The Chinese side can point out that the portrayal of the US media has neither empirical nor circumstantial evidence,relying entirely on the one-sided words of elite stakeholders and crazy delusional people. And this irresponsible reporting without fact checking of the Western media to promote hate against China in turn only encourages more and more outrageous fabrications, which is exactly the typical operating mechanism of “Fake News.”
These words alone will, of course, not be taken seriously, so they must be accompanied by irrefutable examples from the other side. Over the past few years, I have been collecting examples to provide propaganda ammunition, such as the one in my December 2019 article “The Fake News System of Modern Britain and The United States.” In this example, the Briton Peter Humphrey claimed to Western media that he received distress letters from foreign prisoners at Shanghai’s Qingpu Prison, enclosed in English greeting cards produced by their forced unpaid labor. However, a simple internet search reveals that Humphrey returned to the UK to live in a small town called Surrey after serving his sentence in Qingpu Prison a few years ago, and the greeting cards he claimed to have been produced by forced unpaid labor was actually available for purchase in the adjacent town Tooting, which was only a few minutes’ drive from his residence. The odds of such coincidence is miniscule, and the British media reporting Humphrey’s story without fact checking is an excellent example. However, at that time (of the western Xinjiang reports), Chinese officials completely ignored these types of details and responded with only the phrase “no evidence”, which in the eyes of Westerners was tantamount to acquiescence, which was not only unhelpful to the current Xinjiang controversy, but also helped opponents strengthen their preconceived idea of China’s guilt.
In the short term, the Chinese side should take full advantage of the flaws in the lies against China and repeatedly make the point, that is, all the accusations come from the rumor-mongers (such as Peter Humphrey), the addict (such as Adrian Zenz), and the ghost (various institutions and personnel controlled by theCIA and the US State Department, such as the World UYGA). Further, the EU should be asked to lay out the details of the tangible allegations, saying that sources of fake news should be punsihed, then look for objective third-party international organizations to publicly certify, similar to the ROLE OF THE WHO in the traceability of the coronavirus.
In the long run, it is necessary to institutionalize the countermeasures against fake news, establish professional international organizations, immediately review the empirical basis of the allegations, require that the allegations be clearly listed in accordance with legal standards, and have a mechanism for after-the-fact prosecution and punishment of the accusers, the media that spread rumors, and the politicians who have initiated sanctions for no reason. In other words, establish an international civil court that specializes in dealing with the crime of defamation.
Q: At present, it is mainly to introduce what “white left” is, can we classify the techniques of the past 2 years, summarize the characteristics and give examples?
Answer: The white left dogma has always been inconsistent with its own logic. So it operates by dumbing down the accusations into simple slogans, brainwashing the audience by repetition. When necessary, these accusations can be turned into labels of he accused, to trick the audience’s mind into skipping logical reasoning to directly define good or bad using the label. In the slander against China, the United States and the European media controls mainly through three perspectives: “human rights” are used in Xinjiang and covid-19 prevention; “democratic freedom” is used in Hong Kong and Taiwan; and “military aggression” is used in the South China Sea and India. Among them, the issue of “human rights” in Xinjiang is the most serious and outrageous. China’s response, at the escalation of the controversy, should require the accuser to first clearly define the details of the allegations (such as slave labor collecting cotton) in order to refute them one by one, and avoid their changing their story and resetting the standards afterwards. Another most effective response in ordinary times is to return the favor, such as when the United States accuses China of genocide in Xinjiang, we should compare the decline in population of the North American Indians from the beginning of the 17th century to with the population figures of the Uighurs in Xinjiang during the same period. The demographic changes of The Australian Aborigines are similar to those in North America. In addition, the increase in average Uyghur income and life expectancy over the past 30 years should also be compared with the indigenous peoples of North America and Australia.
Q: Can you give examples and argue support?
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Another overlooked fake story, which is even more serious and well suited for the Chinese counterattack, is the OPCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) forged a certificate of the use of chemical weapons by Syrian government forces a few years ago after M16 in the United Kingdom Subsequently, the reports involved in the investigation were forcibly tampered with by the general officials of the Turkish nationality. This matter has been repeatedly leaked by OPCW’s internal professionals in the past few years, but the mainstream media in Europe and the United States have unanimously banned it, and only the United States has been banned. Only the Dissident website Grayzone insisted on exposing it。 I think this is a great subject for the Chinese Foreign Ministry to make a big fuss about in formal occasions, such as the United Nations General Assembly.
Q: Can you further refine the implementation path?
A: After repeatedly presenting evidence to prove that the Western media has systematically falsified, we should unite with other victims, especially Russia and African countries, to request that the fake news that slanders other sovereign countries be provided with a channel for appeal in defense. Britain and the United States are bound to use “freedom of the press” as a rhetoric; China’s counterattack should point out that on the one hand, the United States requires Facebook and Twitter to manage and monitor network news, and even former President Trump has been banned from them. On the other hand, starting from the “presumption of innocence” and other legal rights, it can be pointed out that the U.S. Constitution guarantees the right of suspects to defend in court, internationally, ICCPR (InternationalCovenant on Civil and Political Rights, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights) 14 Chapter 14 (1)clearly states: “All persons shall be equal before the courts and tribunals In the determination of any criminal charge against him, or of his rights and obligations in a suit at law, everyone shall be entitled to a fair and public hearing by a competent, independent and Impartial tribunal established by law.” All persons are equal in court and in court. In determining any criminal charges against him or his rights and obligations in legal proceedings, everyone shall have the right to be heard in a fair and open manner by a competent, independent and impartial tribunal established by law. The Chinese state is a collection of its people; the common rights of 1.4 billion people, how can it be erased for no reason?
The ideal goal here is to establish an international civil tribunal to counter defamation against foreign countries for the victim state to counter false international accusations. If this is not possible, at least there should be an anti-fake news investigation organization that identifies one side of the story at the first time, fairly determines that a piece of news lacks empirical evidence, and makes a point count of the accounts that lead the spread of rumors (that is, the media and the directors, general managers and editors-in-chief behind the scenes), and once they become routine offenders, they are given the label of “habitual rumor-mongers”. This is all the work that Facebook and Twitter have been doing on a daily basis at the behest of the American establishment, and there is no reason why the United Nations cannot do so.
我在一年多前,就預警美國民主黨上臺之後,必然會利用新疆議題來破壞中歐關係,然而事到臨頭,外交部依舊是左支右絀、手忙脚亂,讓衝突不斷升級。而華語界的評論者,不是無視現實、自我慶祝,就是埋怨立場、一味怕事,兩者都只有負面價值。當然上峰已經很明顯地下令不得退讓,但不論這是出於戰術性、還是戰略性考慮,前綫的執行人員都有責任在維持己方尊嚴和利益的前提下,避免中歐關係的惡化。我覺得過去幾天的外交對話,並沒有很理想地達成這個任務,讓人看得心急,所以抽空寫了一篇短文,希望能有實際的影響和貢獻。因爲目標對象特殊,所以必須從頭説起,比較囉嗦,博客的日常讀者請見諒。
本周歐盟響應美國的號召,以新疆為話柄,對中國實施制裁。表面上是兩者沆瀣一氣、狼狽爲奸,實際上歐美的出發點有本質性的差異:美國是始作俑者,其體制幕後的權力精英從保護自身的國際利益出發,必須打擊國力上升到足以威脅霸權的任何國家,所以早在十幾年前就預先安排宣傳藉口,對其國内國外的受衆做洗腦,準備對中國做全方面的誣衊,新疆只是幾十個被嘗試的口實中,獲得受衆最大反響的那個,而歐洲則是最大最重要的受衆。
美國建制派對内對外的宣傳口徑,近年來被華語界貼上一個標簽,叫做“白左”;其實是把舊有的基督教和種族主義重新包裝,深藏在將現代科學和倫理學的詞匯搬運、扭曲、重組而製成的糖衣外殼之内,其核心思想依舊是白種人先天優越、是全人類的救世主;白種人所傳播的教義,是普世真理;由白種人統領的國際體系,是天然規律,不可侵犯。但凡敢拒絕這些原則的,都是壞人、甚至非人,可以使用任何手段來打入地獄。
這個表面上反對宗教和種族主義,實際上繼承其非理性自我優越感的白左思想體系,從1960年代在美國和北歐發源,很快傳遍西方工業國家,成爲主流學術界、媒體和知識分子階級世界觀的基礎;近年來更加走向極端,產生了“政治正確”至上的“Woke Culture”和“Cancel Culture”。由於白左宣傳享有脫離現實真相、本身邏輯不必自洽的編造自由,仍在堅持舊有宗教和種族主義的美國右派爲了互懟,也依靠抹殺事實和違反邏輯來與其競爭。這個對立,往往會迷惑外界的觀察者,以爲是真假善惡之間的鬥爭,實際上是同一個愚蠢、虛假、邪惡、醜陋的文化的一體兩面。
所以當遇上中國這樣由有色人種建立、獨立於西方宗教思想體系之外、又不願承受剝削使喚的自主國家高速工業化,崛起到可能與西方世界平起平坐之時,受威脅的不只是美國的霸權利益,也是歐系文明中根深蒂固的優越感;既然這個優越感是歐美左右兩派思想的共同核心,自然可以用來統一立場,一致對外。
看穿西方宣傳思想體系的本質,讓我們能夠在戰略上藐視他們;但在戰術上,他們有著百年來包裝無數資本利益的經驗,又不受事實和邏輯的羈絆,花樣層出不窮,必須審慎以對,給予高度的重視。
歐美的知識分子同樣受白左思想的矇騙,都是謊言鏈的第二手;但美國的政經領導階層是第一手的啓動者,而歐洲的政經精英卻處於第三手的被動反應地位。我們在選擇應對戰術的過程中,必須對這個差異有充分的認識和考慮。最直接的效應,是美國(以及英、澳、加等Anglo-Saxon系國家)的媒體和聽衆完全不可能接受任何爭辯和説理,可以徑行忽略。歐洲是被欺矇利用的一方,才應該是中方宣傳反擊的重點;但正如所有陷入邪教或傳銷洗腦的被害者,他們已經沉迷於非理性、反科學的思維,光是列舉事實和邏輯,必然無效;中國官僚體系所慣用的,反復直述標準結論,更加只會有反效果。
這裏唯一可行的方案,是利用白左思想中的自我矛盾,依循他們自己的敘事規則,指出他們違反所信教條的行爲。因爲他們對事實和邏輯已經免疫,這些宣傳上的反擊不能有任何深度和長度,越淺顯越簡短越好。換句話説,最近中國駐外使節,有發表長篇大論來列舉事實和論點的,都是在浪費口舌和版面資源。正確的戰術,是一次只專注一個議題,用一兩句話解釋清楚,反復强調,然後用簡單的實例來作佐證。這些例子不須要與核心議題有邏輯嚴謹的因果關係(Causation),但必須是受衆無可否認,而又有明顯連帶類比關係(Correlation)的事件。
實際應用上述的原理在新疆這件議題上,可用的核心反擊論述是像西方的“無罪推定”“Presumption of Innocence“原則,亦即中方沒有在輿論上得到“公平審判”“Fair Trial“。中方可以指出美系媒體的渲染,既沒有實證、也沒有旁證(Circumstantial Evidence),完全依賴利益相關者和瘋狂妄想者的一面之詞。而媒體這種不負責任、不加核實的仇中態度,反過來鼓勵越來越離譜的編造,正是“Fake News”的典型運作機制。
光是這樣幾句話,當然不會被當真,所以必須附帶對方無可反駁的實例。我在過去幾年,一直未雨綢繆,準備提供這些宣傳上的彈藥,例如2019年12月《現代英美的假新聞體系》一文所介紹的,英國人韓飛龍(Peter Humphrey)對西方媒體宣稱他收到來自上海青浦監獄外籍犯人的求救信,夾帶在他們被强迫無償勞動所生產的英文賀卡產品中。然而簡單的網絡搜索就可以發現,韓飛龍幾年前在青浦監獄服刑期滿之後,回到英國住在一個叫做Surrey的小鎮,而他所宣稱的這張求救卡片居然是在相鄰的Tooting鎮上買到的,距離他的住所不過幾分鐘車程。這樣的巧合機率是天文數字,和英國媒體不加核實、直接照印的反應,都是極佳的把柄。然而當時中國官方完全無視這些細節,只用一句“查無實證“來回應,在西方人眼中等於是默認,對當前的新疆爭議不但無益,而且幫助對手加强先入爲主的有罪認定。
短期内,中方應該充分利用仇中謊言露出的破綻,反復劃清重點,也就是所有的指控都來自有仇(如韓飛龍)、有癮(如Adrian Zenz)和有鬼(CIA和美國國務院所操控的諸般機構和人員,例如世維會)的造謠者。進一步可以要求歐盟列出切實的指控細節,説好如果證僞必須懲處假新聞來源,然後尋找客觀的第三方國際組織公開認證,類似WHO在新冠病毒溯源過程中的角色。
長期來看,應該把反制假新聞制度化,建立專業國際組織,在第一時間審查指控的實證基礎,要求將指控依照法律標準明列出來,並且對造謠指控者、傳謠的媒體和無端提起制裁的政客要有事後追訴、懲罰的機制;換句話説,就是一種專門處理毀謗罪的國際民事法庭。
問:目前主要是在介绍“白左”是什么,能否将近2年来的手法进行分类,总结特点并举例说明?
答:白左教條向來本身邏輯就不自洽,所以運作規則必須是先極度簡化成爲口號,反復洗腦成爲普世公理,需要時翻出來直接當標簽來貼,受衆心中自然跳過邏輯推理而直接定義好壞。在誣衊中國的應用上,美國和其所間接掌控的歐洲媒體主要通過三個角度:“人權”用在新疆和新冠防治;“民主自由”用在香港和台灣;“軍事侵略”用在南海和印度。這其中以新疆“人權”議題最嚴重、也最離譜。中方回應的基調,除了正文中建議的,在當前爭議升級的關頭上,要求對方先明確定義指控細節(例如奴隸勞工采集棉花),以便逐一駁斥,並避免事後改變説辭、重訂標準之外,平時最有效的對應,是以彼之道還施彼身,例如美國指控中方在新疆做種族滅絕,我們應該把北美印第安人從17世紀初到21世紀的人口消長與同時段新疆維族的人口數字做對比。澳洲原住民的人口變化,和北美也很類似。此外,維族平均收入和平均壽命在過去30年的成長,也應該統計出來和北美、澳洲原住民做比較。
問:能否举例并进行论述支撑?
答:正文中稍後,以及這裏前一個答案,都給出實例示範。更進一步,可以考慮把英美假新聞對其他國家的誣衊也一並提起,例如俄國反對派Navalny自稱被Putin用神經毒素試圖謀殺,還提供了“俄國特工”的口供,這種明顯的自導自演,與Peter Humphrey的編造如出一轍。其實要接受他的説辭,邏輯上必須假設整個龐大的俄國,只擁有一種神經毒素,幾年前在英國“下毒失敗”之後,還找不到更有效的毒藥來換用;這是漫威漫畫中反派故事的邏輯,幼稚到可笑的地步。Putin一直隨便Navalny去搞,可能就是因爲後者的故事漏洞太多,以爲他會自取其辱,沒想到仇俄勢力滲透德國軍政單位太深,連給Merkel的報告都敢造假。像這樣的歷史經驗,至少可以用來做爲與俄國協作的嵌入點。
另一個被忽視的造假故事,則更加嚴重,非常適合中方反擊之用,也就是OPCW(Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons,禁止化學武器組織)幾年前在英國MI6幕後控制的“白頭盔”組織(全名“叙利亚公民防卫”)假造敘利亞政府軍使用化學武器的證據之後,參與調查的報告被土耳其裔的總幹事强迫篡改。這件事在過去幾年被OPCW内部的專業人員反復泄露,但歐美主流媒體一致封殺,只有美國異見網站《Grayzone》堅持揭發,參見《5 former OPCW officials join prominent voices to call out Syria cover-up》。我認爲這是非常適合中國外交部在正式場合(如聯合國大會)大做文章的題材。
問:能否进一步细化说明实现路径?
答:在多次舉證,證明西方媒體有系統地造假之後,應該聯合其他被害者,尤其是俄國和非洲國家,要求對誣衊其他主權國家的假新聞,提供上訴抗辯的管道。英美必然會以“新聞自由”為説辭;中方的反擊,應該一方面指出美國要求Facebook和Twitter來管理監控網絡新聞,連前總統Trump都禁掉了,怎麽能把私營企業都享有的權力拒絕賦予聯合國級別的官方組織?另一方面則可以從“無罪推定”和其他法律權利出發,指出美國憲法保障嫌疑犯在法庭抗辯的權利,國際上,ICCPR(International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights,公民權利及政治權利國際公約)第14章第1節(Article 14(1))明文規定:“All persons shall be equal before the courts and tribunals. In the determination of any criminal charge against him, or of his rights and obligations in a suit at law, everyone shall be entitled to a fair and public hearing by a competent, independent and impartial tribunal established by law”“所有人在法院和法庭上一律平等。 在確定對他的任何刑事指控或其在法律訴訟中的權利和義務時,每個人均應有權由依法設立的主管,獨立和公正的法庭進行公正和公開的審理”。國家是人民的集合,14億人的共同權利,怎麽可以被無端抹殺?
這裏最理想的目標,是設立一個反制對外國做毀謗的國際民事法庭,供受害國家對虛僞的國際誣衊指控做正名反擊之用。如果做不到,至少應該有反假新聞的審查組織,在第一時間標識一面之詞,公平裁定某條消息欠缺實證;並且對帶頭散佈謠言的賬戶(亦即媒體以及幕後的董事、總經理和總編輯)做記點統計,一旦成爲纍犯,就賦予“造謠慣犯”的標簽。這都是Facebook和Twitter應美國建制派要求已經日常進行的工作,沒有理由聯合國不能照辦。
【後註一】多年來我在留言欄反復提起《GrayZone》,到本篇博文,更明確在正文内指出其對中方的參考和佐證價值。雖然《觀網》主頁編輯在當前審查標準下,選擇不轉載最近的博文,昨天我很高興看到他們對Max Blumenthal做了專訪,參見《专访马克斯·布鲁门特尔》
【後註二】雖然我在留言欄,已經把民主黨對下一波追訴新冠起源責任宣傳攻勢的籌劃醖釀反復解釋過了,但今天(2021年六月25日)看到《NY Times》也發了長篇大論,如此一來下至《Vanity Fair》、上至《The Economist》、左派的《NY Times》和 《CNN》、右派的《WSJ》和《Bloomberg》、中間派的《Reuters》全部到齊,應該是只等聯邦政府的“調查報告”一出臺,就會正式發動全面的國際抹黑攻擊。上周《Lancet》一個為中方説話的專家被迫從WHO離職,這是非常不好的徵兆,似乎是外交部無視我的警告和建議,沒有主動占據科學高地,整合專業良心力量;希望事情不會有我擔心的那麽糟糕。
【後註三】我以前曾經專門撰文介紹過Sabine Hessenfelder(參見前文《高能物理界的新動態》);不過她並不是當前英語世界中最佳的科普作者,那個頭銜應該屬於Ethan Siegel。他作爲《Forbes Science》的專欄作家,其科普文章是我所知最博學、最深刻、最詳細、最準確的(他自己的專業本行除外;這是因爲他還在做研究,所以關心的必然是仍然處於Speculative階段的議題,也必然須要在許多可能理論中挑選自己喜歡而且方便發論文的路綫;很不幸的,這是所有尖端科研人員的通病,包括Hessenfelder在内,基本無法避免)。這裏(參見《Ask Ethan: How Can You Be So Sure That Covid-19 Didn’t Happen From A Lab Leak?》)是他在六月11日發表的對新冠起源的解説,非常精確、有效、全面地駁斥了英美當前的所有陰謀論,這正是我反復强調的國際良心專業人士的作用。雖然他的論述層次太高,不適合外交部直接拿來引用,但是動員中國科研界與歐洲專業人員交流討論的時候,這篇文章是完美的準備稿
【後註四】2021年七月7日,24名生醫專家在《Lancet》為武漢實驗室發聲。結合過去幾天一系列相關報導,似乎外交單位終於同意我向來的建議,亦即藉助國際良心科學人的力量,把爭議轉化為科學與政治的鬥爭。雖然有點晚,但希望還來得及打破Biden上臺以來醖釀已久的這一波宣傳抹黑攻勢。
【後註五】2021年七月8日,《BBC》登出一篇介紹美國華裔與當地右翼民粹合流的文章(參見《Going undercover to infiltrate Chinese-American far-right networks》),雖然口氣很委婉,内容也沒有什麽出人意料之處(基督教原教旨主義信徒,Proud Boy贊助者,參與衝擊國會,迷信QAnon;《大紀元》和其他抹黑中國的謠言製造機則當然一字不提),但英美宣傳管道願意談一個敏感的題目,本身就反映出幕後操控者的特定政治需求。這裏我認爲英美建制派開始有所警覺,爲了提防這些豬隊友一味胡搞捅出難以遮掩的醜聞,準備事先劃清界綫。
【後註六】去年(2020年)夏天,美國曾鬧出一波“神秘中國種子”事件:有幾百個消費者對媒體宣稱曾經莫名其妙地收到來自中國的植物種子,引發了全國性恐慌,各種陰謀論層出不窮,聯邦和州級的農業和衛生組織紛紛介入,深怕這些種子是變種雜草或夾帶病毒,但都查無實據。當時我除了懷疑那些人無中生有、杞人憂天之外,也考慮了另一項可能,亦即美國電子商務界十分流行的一個騙術,叫做“Paypal payment & non-delivery scam”:騙子利用美國郵局提供追蹤服務並不詳列派遞的街道地址、只確認送到某個鎮上(以“保護隱私”)的特點,故意把便宜的垃圾貨品發送到同一個鎮上隨機選擇的錯誤地址去,如此一來支付系統如Paypal誤以爲貨已送到,就會駁回買家要求退款的申訴。那些神秘種子的包裹,往往有海關標簽說内含物是首飾,似乎與這個可能性相吻合;但是這個騙術的收件人姓名,必須對應原買家,而不是假地址的住戶,這和我看到的報導有抵觸,所以當時我只能在心中標識“存疑”,遠遠不足以公開討論。
猜測歸猜測,這類疑問最終還是要靠跑腿追根究底、徹查事實,才能真正水落石出。經過一年的沉澱,終於有美國記者願意花時間發掘真相,他的研究結果發表在《The Atlantic》上(參見《THE TRUTH BEHIND THE AMAZON MYSTERY SEEDS》),原來果然是庸人自擾,每一個被仔細檢驗的案例,都是美國買家自己在2020年初網購種子,沒注意到賣家來自海外,後來因爲新冠疫情影響中國商業運作和國際郵務送遞,這些包裹延遲了近半年才送到,買家已經忘記自己曾經訂購這些廉價物品。再加上植物種子依法不能簡單入關,於是這些中國商家故意假稱是其他商品,進一步引發誤解,然後Fake news利用仇中、恐中心態炒作起來,才成爲又一樁可以抹黑中國的故事。等到一年後真相被澄清,早已不可能扭轉大衆的印象,又一次印證了我多年來在本部落格反復解釋(例如《大衆媒體的内建矛盾》)的道理:也就是“造謠一張嘴、闢謠跑斷腿”;如果我們不想被陰謀論帶歪,就務必堅持有一分證據、說一分話的原則,正是出於這個考慮,我始終特別强調Occams Razor和Russells Teapot的重要性。
【後註七】2021年八月29日,“世界对白”送來私信 :“ 有两位读者都拿这篇文章来讨教,搜:‘从冠状病毒专利的角度看新冠病毒溯源:大卫·马丁在德国新冠调查委员会上的证词’(參見《硬核助攻外交部!从美国冠状病毒专利,深挖新冠病毒真正来源!》,初始來源是:新青年说1921 微信号)。”以下是我的評論:
唉,那篇討論是David Martin基於自己接觸過的一點事實(亦即專利申請),然後出於個人對陰謀論的信仰、對背後科學的無知、以及有心忽悠的動機,在邏輯上做出一連串跳躍、發明和誤解,所得到的歪論。
首先,如果他稍有點生醫常識,就會知道在2012年CRISPR被發明之前,基因修改是一件十分困難而且不精確的工作,根本不可能對病毒做出他所討論那個級別的人工演化(在那之前,只有像731部隊做大規模人體實驗才有一點可能得到所求的病毒演化,但那顯然和Martin所談的是兩回事)。其次,美國企業和個人一遇到新的機會,就機關槍打鳥,把所有合理和不合理的技術和“模式”通通注冊申請專利,是上世紀就開始的事;他自稱行内專家,卻故意不提,顯然是有意忽悠聽衆。連CDC去搶注病毒基因的專利,也是衆人皆知的事,不過原因不是CDC自己想要拿病毒幹什麽,剛好相反,是因爲90年代就有Patent Troll搶先登記,事後再對真正的研究人員強收過路費,所以CDC爲了保護學術界免費研究的自由,才會被迫出面下場搶標。
美國專利系統在70、80年代,被一個搶注條碼專利的人徹底破壞,早已喪失原本的精神。到了1999年,又出現了另一個被資本收買而做出的詭異判例(亦即Amazon的“1 click patent”,開啓了“Business Process”也可以申請專利的先河)所以才會有他討論的2000年代那批搶注專利的風潮。當時連我工作的幾家銀行都不斷要求把日常業務流程整理出來申請專利,就更別提生醫界了。你就算要申請拿黑洞來發電,也絕對過得了美國專利局的審查;但這裏的邏輯斷點,在於有那個專利,完全不代表有相對的技術和能力去做到,甚至連去嘗試的意願都往往不存在,純粹就像中國流行搶注商標一樣,占地攔路搶錢罷了。大陸的陰謀論信徒,對台灣那個“高端”疫苗利用文字聯想來誤導消費者(它至少沒有字面上的謊言,也不難查明),譏嘲交加,但對這種符合自己偏見的同類騙術,卻極樂於相信傳播,這已經不是五十步笑百步,而是百步笑五十步了。
更進一步去深究,M.CAM的董事長David Martin,其實是個典型的Crackpot(他的正業是賣書和給演講,亦即Self-help Guru,自稱是“Fully Human”,參見他的Youtube Channel),M.CAM則是典型的一人公司(雖然可能有雇用專門對一人公司提供非專業助理服務的第三者接綫生),網絡流傳的訪問視頻,也絕對不是來自什麽“德國新冠調查委員會”。那個做翻譯的“新青年说1921微信号”,如果只是不懂專業細節還情有可原,這麽簡單明顯的事也去編造出來,顯然是有意要為大陸現在流行的陰謀論火上加油,順便賺取點擊流量。問題在於,你搞這些反智的陰謀論,只有國内的傻B爲了求爽而樂於相信、討論和傳播,在有實際意義的國際論壇上,反而是拿槍打自己的脚。你以爲歐美的知識分子不會去查M.CAM和David Martin是怎麽回事?(參見《New ‘Plandemic’ Video Peddles Misinformation, Conspiracies》)“德國新冠調查委員會”更加容易揭穿,因爲它根本就不存在。
這個“以毒攻毒”的反智宣傳策略,不但是在訓練外宣的目標聽衆,只要看到來自中國外交部的發言,就直接當作謊言(事實上這個案例也的確是謊言)扔進垃圾桶,而且自然會吸引全世界最愚蠢瘋狂的人作爲盟友,正直懂事的人則成爲敵人。我一再説過,國際宣傳事關國家利益,不能因爲搞假新聞是不道德的事而不加考慮,《RT》就是正面的例子。但俄國在MH17一事上徹底理虧,把水攪渾毫無負面代價;中方在新冠起源上沒有類比性。此外你必須量力而爲,否則弄巧成拙,就有很强的反作用,尤其絕對、絕對不能由外交部官方直接下場去搞。中方光是在這個外宣策略選擇上,就明顯展示出所有承辦的相關人員(不含趙立堅和其他發言人,因爲他們只是拿稿照本宣科,決策不是他們的責任)不入流和不適任的程度,下起想出餿主意的智庫和推薦騷操作的幕僚,上至批准自殺行爲的副部級官員,都應該被要求寫檢討書才對。